Earthquake Forecast following M5.1 in Tonga

2024.07.09 16:28 lat: -20.422, lon: -174.309 depth: 6 km Back to list

Read more details about this forecast and how you can help us improve it.
Description: Above is our model's last forecast before the earthquake (left side) and the first forecast after the earthquake (right side). The probabilities are obtained by counting the fraction of simulations that had at least one earthquake above different magnitudes (M5, M6 or M7) within different areas (50, 100 or 200 km) in the next 7 or 30 days. The last 10 day time history of the probabilities (for M5+ during the next 30 days) is shown on the lower left side. Check the current forecast for the region, explore past earthquakes or visit the USGS page for this event.

Your input matters: If you disagree with these probabilities you can challenge our model by submitting a deterministic prediction. Find a probability too low? Submit a to-occur prediction for the given time-space-magnitude window. You think the probability is too high? Make a not-to-occur prediction and let us know. The result of these predictions lets everybody know where our model is over (or under) estimating and allows us to improve it.

For more information on the model and prediction assessment see the following papers.
Nandan, S., Kamer, Y., Ouillon, G., Hiemer, S., Sornette, D. (2020). Global models for short-term earthquake forecasting and predictive skill assessment. European Physical Journal ST. doi: 10.1140/epjst/e2020-000259-3
Kamer, Y., Nandan, S., Ouillon, G., Hiemer, S., Sornette, D. (2020). Democratizing earthquake predictability research: introducing the RichterX platform. European Physical Journal ST. doi: 10.1140/epjst/e2020-000260-2