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Science Behind
  • Currently, all probabilities on RichterX are based on the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model.
  • The ETAS model is widely used in seismology to describe the occurrence of earthquakes in space, time and magnitude. According to this model, any earthquake can trigger other (larger or smaller) earthquakes, which in turn can trigger more earthquakes and so on, leading to a cascade of triggering.
Key References:
  • Nandan S., Kamer Y., Ouillon G., Hiemer S., Sornette D. (2021). Global models for short-term earthquake forecasting and predictive skill assessment. European Physical Journal ST. doi: 10.1140/epjst/e2020-000259-3
  • Kamer Y., Nandan S., Ouillon G., Hiemer S., Sornette D. (2021). Democratizing earthquake predictability research: introducing the RichterX platform. European Physical Journal ST. doi: 10.1140/epjst/e2020-000260-2
People Behind
  • Dr. Yavor Kamer obtained his Phd from ETH Zurich with his thesis investigating the spatial and frequency magnitude distribution of Californian seismicity. He was awarded for this work by the American Geophysical Union. He has been active in the development of real-time loss estimation routines in Turkey and is currently working on likelihood based methods for earthquake location.
  • Dr. Shyam Nandan obtained his Phd from ETH Zurich. His current research interests lie in improving earthquake forecasts using Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models. His contributions to RichterX in his free time do not imply that the RichterX approach, the RichterX platform and forecasts issued are supported or embraced by his employer, the Swiss Seismological Service (SED) at ETH Zürich
  • Dr. Stefan Hiemer obtained his PhD from ETH Zurich with his thesis entitled "Next generation probabilistic seismicity forecasting”. His research is primarily focused on long-term earthquake rate estimation and probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. He also enjoys bridging science to industry by looking into natural catastrophe models and exposure risk management strategies.
Advisory:
  • Prof. Dr. Didier Sornette is Professor on the Chair of Entrepreneurial Risks at ETH Zurich, also a professor of the Swiss Finance Institute, and is associated with both the departments of Physics and of Earth Sciences at ETH Zurich. In 2008, he founded the Financial Crisis Observatory to diagnose and predict financial bubbles. He uses rigorous data-driven mathematical statistical analyses combined with nonlinear multi-variable dynamical models including positive and negative feedbacks to study the predictability and control of crises and extreme events in complex systems, with applications to all domains of science and practice.
  • Dr. Guy Ouillon is an independent researcher in Geophysics since 2006. Working in collaboration with institutions such as UCLA or ETH Zurich, his 'basin of attraction' consists in reconciling statistical properties of faulting and seismicity with their plausible underlying physics.