This is an ongoing experiment and thus we reserve the right to modify and update the rules as we gain further insights.
The competition
  • RichterX organizes a global earthquake prediction competition to find out if earthquakes are predictable.
  • Anyone can participate in this competition by submitting predictions. These predictions are evaluated using our real-time global earthquake forecasting model.
  • Public participation helps us improve our model by highlighting its weaknesses. That's why we reward successful participants by distributing 500 Euros every two weeks.
The rules
  • An earthquake prediction is defined as a statement specifying the number of earthquakes above a magnitude threshold (minimum M5), in a circular region (radius can vary from 30 to 300 km) and within a time-window (duration can vary between 1 to 30 days).
  • The prediction time-window starts 10 minutes after submission.
  • An earthquake prediction can be submitted by staking 1 to 100 Earthquake Coins (EQC).
  • Available EQC for staking recharge in real-time at a rate of 100 EQC every 24 hours.
  • The total active stake on Not to occur predictions can not exceed 100 EQC.
  • To keep the competition fair, each user is allowed to have only one account. If multiple accounts are detected, we will deactivate all except the initial account and none of the accounts will be eligible for rewards in that round.
  • Predictions are evaluated every hour against new earthquakes from the actual USGS ComCat catalog to determine current scores and tentative rewards.
  • One hour after the end of each round USGS ComCat catalog is queried and all predictions are re-evaluated to determine final scores and final rewards.
  • Score is defined as [Gained EQC] minus [Staked EQC] minus [Carry over EQC].
  • Users with negative final scores carry over a portion of their negative scores to the next round. The carry over is fixed at 10% for scores up to -100 and increases linearly to 90% for scores of -900.
The rewards
  • We distribute up to 500€ reward every two weeks to participants according to their performance. Rewards are distributed in three categories:
  • An initial 100€ for all users with positive scores. An additional 150€ for users with skill class B. Finally, 250€ for users with skill class A. Skill classes A and B require at least 5 non-overlapping predictions
  • Rewards in all categories are distributed according proportionally to the users scores.
  • The top 3 participants donate 10% of their rewards by default to support earthquake relief efforts.
  • All participants can choose to donate their rewards to charitable organizations or withdraw them as cryptocurrency or gift cards. For withdrawals we use Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Gridcoin (GRC), a cryptocurrency incentivizing volunteer computing for scientific research.